Rashad Evans vs. Lyoto Machida (UFC Light Heavyweight Championship)

The UFC Light Heavyweight champion, Rashad Evans, is the underdog in yet another fight. This time it is against karate master, Lyoto Machida. This fight pretty much comes down to this: Rashad Evans’ “Team Jackson” game planning, unorthodox but powerful striking and wrestling prowess against Lyoto Machida’s elusiveness, flawless striking technique and ability to frustrate opponents.

Machida is a pretty heavy favorite going into this bout, and for good reason: this is a very poor matchup for Rashad Evans. Machida was able to outlast a very tough wrestler in Tito Ortiz, not to mention finish off dangerous fighters like Thiago Silva and Sokoudjou. Although Evans does have knockout victories over Forrest Griffin, Chuck Liddell and Sean Salmon, he doesn’t have the technical striking game to compete with “The Dragon” on the feet. If this fight goes to a decision, it favors Machida. If this fight stays standing, it favors Machida. The best shot Evans has to win this fight is to get a Chuck Liddell-esque knockout or control Lyoto on the ground for 5 rounds. I don’t see either of these happening, and I think Lyoto Machida is a very smart bet up to -250. Lyoto Machida via unanimous decision.

Matt Hughes vs. Matt Serra

The long awaited grudge match is finally here, although it likely would have meant more a year or two ago. Let’s get straight to the facts: Matt Serra is only being billed as competitive in this fight because of his fluke knockout over Georges St. Pierre. Serra has a very spotty record over competition that isn’t on Matt Hughes’ level.

Hughes will be stronger that the former Lightweight. Hughes should be able to take Serra down with ease and control him from top position. Although Serra’s ground game has been spoken very highly of, he doesn’t have many submission victories to his credit. Hughes is difficult to submit, and he will win a lopsided fight with ground and pound. Matt Hughes via TKO in the second round. Odds were very favorable on Hughes when they first came out, but you can still find solid odds in the -240 to -260 range.

Xavier Foupa-Pokam vs. Drew McFedries

I’m pretty shocked that this fight is being billed on the main card. In my opinion, both of these guys are 1 fight away from finding a new employer. With that being said, this is a good fight for “Professor X”. Pokam has a reach advantage and a much more technical striking game than McFedries. There won’t be much of a ground game in this contest, so this fight’s outcome will be decided by fists, shins, knees and elbows.

Unless McFedries catches Xavier’s chin with one of those heavy hands (which is definitely a possibility), look for Pokam to overwhelm him with his kickboxing and Muay Thai in the first. None of Drew McFedries’ last 5 fights got out of the first round, and this won’t be an exception. Xavier Foupa-Pokam via TKO due to a barrage of strikes in the first.

Dan Miller vs. Chael Sonnen

Chael Sonnen needs to stop getting submitted if he is ever going to break through to a Middleweight contender. A good first step for the Team Quest product is getting by a very tough Dan Miller. Unfortunately, Miller has a striking and submission edge on the wrestling-heavy Sonnen. In many other situations, I’d say a fight between these two types of mixed martial artists would be a lot closer, but Sonnen’s affinity for getting submitted makes Miller an easy pick here. Dan Miller via guillotine choke in the 2nd round.

Sean Sherk vs. Frankie Edgar

I like Frankie Edgar a lot, but this is going to be an uphill battle for him. Sean Sherk is the best Lightweight in the UFC not named BJ Penn. Sherk has legendary cardio, outstanding wrestling, intimidating size and power and a fire-hydrant head to boot. There aren’t many ways for the undersized, outmatched Edgar to pull off the upset here. An upset it possible if Sherk decides to keep the fight standing, but it is far from probable. Sherk gets the ground and pound stoppage late in the fight. He is also a very good bet up to -350. Sean Sherk via TKO in the 3rd.

Brock Larson vs. Chris Wilson

When the first line went up for this fight, Brock Larson was actually an underdog. I almost had to buy a new keyboard because I spit out the soda that I was drinking. Brock Larson is a very dangerous Welterweight who overwhelms opponents with strength, wrestling ability and aggression. He is in the same mold as his training partners, Sean Sherk and Brock Lesnar.

Chris Wilson has shown himself to be a game fighter in his battle with Jon Fitch. However, losses to John Howard and Brad Blackburn show me that he won’t be able to hang with someone like Brock Larson. Wilson is a decision fighter, and Larson’s fights rarely go the distance. Look for Brock Larson to impress with an early submission victory set up by his wrestling ability in the first round. Brock Larson via 1st round rear naked choke.

Pat Barry vs. Tim Hague

The hype machine is firmly behind Pat “Get Hype” Barry after his chopping down of Dan Evensen. Barry is an undersized Heavyweight with some oversized striking power. Tim “The Thrashing Machine” Hague is a very large, bruising Heavyweight who cuts to get to 265. Unfortunately for Hague, his size and power will be rendered useless by countless devastating low kicks. I don’t see Barry finishing Hague with leg kicks like he did Evensen, but I do think he will set “The Thrashing Machine” up for a flurry of strikes leading to a TKO in the 3rd round. Barry via 3rd round TKO.

Phillipe Nover vs. Kyle Bradley

Phillipe “Next Anderson Silva” Nover is being given Kyle Bradley to get his career back on track after his loss to Efrain Escudero. While Kyle Bradley is a tough competitor with a strong record and boxing background, he has come up short against UFC caliber talent like Joe Lauzon, Chris Lytle and Melvin Guillard. Everything tells me (and apparently everyone else) that Nover is of that same caliber, and will overwhelm Bradley en route to a submission victory. Nover in the early 2nd round via armbar.

Andre Gusmao vs. Krzysztof Soszynski

This is the most competitive fight on the card in my opinion. Both of these fighters have the tools to beat the other, so it will come down to the old cliché: “who can impose their will on the other fighter”. Gusmao’s lone UFC appearance was, unfortunately for him, against a star in the making in Jon Jones. Gusmao’s flashy, Capoiera based striking got out flashed by Jones’ unorthodox, balls to the wall striking.

Soszynski is far from flasy, but is coming off an impressive victory over Brian Stann where he used his signature kimura to secure the submission victory. Although K-Sos will be stronger than Andre in this bout, I doubt he will submit the well versed Brazilian Jiu Jitsu practicioner. Still, it won’t stop “The Polish Experiment” from overpowering Gusmao against the cage and on the ground. If Soszynski doesn’t get caught in a triangle or arm bar while he is on top of Gusmao, I think he will pull off a decision victory. Krzysztof Soszynski via unanimous decision.

Yoshiyuki Yoshida vs. Brandon Wolff

Yoshiyuki Yoshida looked very promising after his destruction of “War Machine”, but fell short in his last fight against Josh Koscheck. By fell short, I mean got knocked out cold. Brandon Wolff didn’t do much better in his last fight against Ben Saunders, a fight in which Wolff ate about 100 knees in the clinch.

Yoshida has been a heavy favorite in this fight since the lines came out, which is about right. On paper, he outclasses Wolff in striking, grappling and submission. He is also reportedly working with Greg Jackson’s camp to prepare for this fight. However, I’m going to go with my gut on this one and predict a huge upset victory for the ex-Navy SEAL. I know Wolff is far from the fighter that Josh Koscheck is, but I think Wolff has less to lose and will let it all hang out. Yoshida has shown that he can be knocked out by less than stellar strikers, and I think lightening has a shot of happening twice. Wolff in the first via KO. Wolff is the biggest underdog on this card, and I think it is worth putting a small flier on him.

Dave Kaplan vs. George Roop

These two ex-TUF contestants are pretty evenly matched. The odds show Roop as a slight to moderate favorite, but many experts are picking the bigger Kaplan to pull off the upset here. This fight is too evenly matched to bet on, with Roop having the edge in submission and Kaplan getting the better of the striking game. Still, Kaplan has been submitted twice in his career and Roop will make it three. George Roop via submission in the 2nd.