UFC 104 takes place this Saturday, October 24th, in Los Angeles, California.  The main event will mark Lyoto Machida’s first UFC Light Heavyweight championship defense against PRIDE Grand Prix champion Mauricio “Shogun” Rua.  In addition, an important Heavyweight battle will take place between the up and coming Cain Velasquez and IFL and Affliction vet Ben Rothwell.  Here are the MMAMoneyLine predictions for the entire UFC 104 fight card.  For other UFC 104 predictions, check out MMAMoneyLine’s “Pros’ Picks” section.

Lyoto Machida vs. Mauricio Rua

UFC Light Heavyweight kingpin, Lyoto Machida, is coming into this fight as a huge favorite.  His best line, right now, is -405 on several books.  His otherworldly striking ability and impressive defense has gotten the MMA world on the “Machida-Era” hype train.  His opponent, Mauricio “Shogun” Rua, is a bit of a wildcard right now.  He was a dominant 205 lb. fighter in PRIDE, but has been lackluster in the UFC.

Machida’s technical karate and Rua’s violent Muay Thai will make this an interesting affair on the feet.  Many people think Rua’s best shot in this fight is to take it to the ground, and I couldn’t agree more.  The only time we’ve seen Machida in trouble in a fight was when he was caught in a tight Tito Ortiz triangle.  However, Machida has the defensive striking and grappling ability to dictate where this fight goes.

Shogun is too much of a mystery to make me think he has a reasonable shot at winning this fight.  He looked very bad against Forrest Griffin and Mark Coleman, and there isn’t much we can take from a quick KO against the questionable chin of Chuck Liddell.  Are Shogun’s knees going to give him problems?  Has his cardio improved?  Can he come up with a gameplan against Machida?  Nobody knows yet.

What I do know is that Machida will have the striking, cardio and “Fight IQ” advantage in this fight.  If Shogun comes at him with pure aggression, there will be a replay of the Machida/Silva fight.  If he tries to be patient and counterstrike Machida, it will be a replay of the Machida/Evans fight.  If he gets Machida to the ground, that doesn’t ensure victory either.  Machida is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and is definitely in the same league as Rua.

Rua is absolutely a live dog, but the 80/20 odds are pretty accurate in this one.  Machida gets the nod unless he makes a mistake, which we haven’t seen yet.

My pick:  Lyoto Machida via 3rd round TKO

Betting play: The odds are set well on this fight, and Machida’s odds are a little high to get any real value.  An underdog bet on Shogun is understandable, but not recommended.  Rua’s best odds are +330 at 5Dimes.

Cain Velasquez vs. Ben Rothwell

Cain Velasquez‘s odds in this fight have been widely scrutinized in the MMA blogosphere.  Many people, including myself, think they are a little high at -400/-500 mark.  Many casual fans may not know who Ben Rothwell is, but he is an absolutely legitimate mixed martial artist with a well rounded game.

With that being said, I still think this is a pretty poor match up for Rothwell.  People have gone to great lengths about how Velasquez was rocked several times by Cheick Kongo.  People think this show of weakness will somehow lead to a Rothwell upset.  Keep in mind that, contrary to what you may read, Kongo is a better striker than Rothwell.  Ben Rothwell tagged glass-jawed Andrei Arlovski several times and couldn’t put him down.  Rothwell is a very good striker, but I don’t think he possesses more power or technical prowess than Kongo.

There is no reason to believe that Velasquez isn’t going to shoot on Rothwell and take him down at will.  Big Ben doesn’t have the level of takedown defense needed to prevent it from happening, and Cain is one of the best pure wrestlers in MMA.  Rothwell does have the submission chops to submit Velasquez, but most of his submissions have come from top control (good luck with that agains Velasquez).  This fight will likely be a replay of the Velasquez/Kongo fight, except Cain won’t get hit as much.

My pick:  Cain Velasquez via unanimous decision

Betting play: The only logical play as the odds stand right now is an underdog bet on Rothwell.  There is a lot of value at +300 on Bodog and Sportsbook.  On the flip side, if Velasquez’s odds get around the -250 mark make that play.

Yushin Okami vs. Chael Sonnen

This will be Yushin Okami‘s first Octagon appearance since December 2008.  The storyline around this fight with Chael Sonnen is the UFC’s seemingly ongoing efforts to bury the “boring” Japanese Middleweight.  He was arguably the next in line for Anderson Silva, and now has been relegated to the undercard against a grinding fighter like Sonnen.

With all the soap opera BS out of the way, this fight is actually well made and should be competitive.  Okami is a strong grappler with a well rounded game.  He is very good in the clinch and has shown the ability to overpower very good fighters (i.e. Mike Swick).  Sonnen is also a highly acclaimed grappler with Olympic level wrestling.

Okami is a pretty sizeable favorite (-250 on some books) in this fight, which is a bit of a stretch in my opinion.  Okami has had trouble with grapplers who he couldn’t overpower, losing to Rich Franklin and Jake Shields.  He does well against fighters who have weak wrestling, even if they have a good striking or submission game.

Sonnen is notorious for getting submitted, having 6 submission losses on his record.  Okami is definitely capable of submitting Sonnen, but only has 1 non-striking or injury related sub in his career.  Sonnen also showed much improved submission defense in his last fight against Dan Miller.

If Chael Sonnen (and his camp) planned for fights a bit better, this would be an easy pick for Sonnen.  He has the tools to beat “Thunder” at his own game.  However, Sonnen’s Fight IQ has let him down in the past and will likely be his undoing against a very smart fighter like Okami.

My pick:  Yushin Okami via split decision.

Betting play: Much like the Velasquez/Rothwell fight, the value here is on the underdog.  I was very close to picking Sonnen in this fight, and he is absolutely worth a bet at +200 on Sportsbook if you believe he can fight smart.  This fight is close to 50/50, so those odds shouldn’t be passed up.

Josh Neer vs. Gleison Tibau

Josh Neer will be filling in for the injured Sean Sherk in this UFC 104 contest against Janigleison Herculano Alves aka. Gleison Tibau.  Neer is coming off of a loss against Kurt Pellegrino and Tibau is coming off of a controversial decision loss against Melvin Guillard.

Josh Neer is a very tough opponent who is capable of hanging with practically every Lightweight in the UFC.  However, he showed very poor takedown defense against Pellegrino.  Tibau is a very good grappler, and an absolutely huge 155 pounder.  It is questionable if Tibau has better wrestling than Pellegrino, but his overall grappling game will be a lot for Neer to deal with.

Look for Tibau to neutralize Neer’s brawling strikes on the feet, use his wrestling to get himself into dominant position and utilize his black belt level BJJ to defend against Neer’s triangle and armbar attempts en route to a ground and pound TKO victory.

My pick:  Gleison Tibau via 2nd round TKO

Betting play: Tibau’s best odds are at -135 (57%) on Sportsbook.  Those are good odds for this fight, as I think Tibau takes this fight 65% of the time.  A sizeable bet on Herculano (as he shall be called going forward) is recommended.

Joe Stevenson vs. Spencer Fisher

Joe Stevenson knows what Joe Stevenson is going to do.  Spencer Fisher knows what Joe Stevenson is going to do.  My mother who doesn’t watch MMA knows what Joe Stevenson is going to do.  “Daddy” is going to look for the takedown against “The King”, and get it more times than not.  If Fisher has one weakness, it’s his wrestling.  Joe Stevenson is a very good wrestler, and will absolutely look to exploit this.

Fisher is a hell of a powerful striker at 155 and if Stevenson goes the “Sean Sherk School Of Striking For Wrestlers” route, he will get knocked out…no questions asked.  Fisher is coming fresh off a loss to another good wrestler in Caol Uno, and Stevenson will follow this blueprint.  Joe Stevenson loses to the absolute best in the weight class and beats everyone else.  Fisher is “everyone else”.

My pick:  Joe Stevenson via unanimous decision

Betting play: Stevenson’s odds were very favorable when they first came out (around -200 I believe), but his current odds are a little high in the mid -200s.  Still, a bet on Stevenson at -225 on SportBet is a smart play against an overmatched fighter.

Anthony Johnson vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida

Anthony Johnson has a lot of hype behind him right now.  He is an asbolute sledgehammer on the feet and has weight cutting down to a Thiago Alves-esque science.  There are some reports out there that say he starts his camp weighing as much as 220 lbs.  He will be looking across the cage at a very serviceable contender in Yoshiyuki Yoshida.

Johnson is coming off of two straight knock out victories, and this fight should be no different.  Yoshida’s biggest victory to date was over War Machine, and that doesn’t say a whole lot.  “Zenko” is a very good Judoka, but his Judo won’t make a difference once “Rumble” lands a bomb.  Yoshida also doesn’t possess the submission acumen of a Rich Clementi or the eye poking ability of Kevin Burns.  If Koscheck could knock Yoshida out, Johnson can definitely knock him out.

My pick:  Anthony Johnson via KO in the 2nd

Betting play: Not much value on “Rumble” in the -300 range.  No bet recommended.

Chase Gormley vs. Stefan Struve

“Gormley trains out of Black House in California, and the word on the street has been that Gormley has given both Antonio Rogerio Nogueira and Junior dos Santos battles in sparring sessions in terms of his striking ability.”  Good enough for me.  Stefan Struve has unusual length and very good submissions, but hasn’t shown much in the striking or striking defense departments in his 2 UFC fights.  A Struve submission is definitely possible against the wrestling-based Gormley, but Chase Gormley has one of the best submission-based camps on Earth.

I fully expect Gormley to use a clinch and striking cocktail to put Struve against the cage and face down on the canvas.  If Rothwell loses, it’s likely that we will get to see the original Affliction matchup after this fight.

My pick:  Chase Gormley via 1st round KO

Betting play: I was surprised that the oddsmakers got this one right.  I was ready to pounce on Gormley at even money or slightly worse, but that isn’t the case.  Gormley’s best odds are -205 on Sportsbook, which are a little high for your UFC debut against a very good submission fighter.  No bet unless that line comes under -200.

Ryan Bader vs. Eric Schafer

Acting as the devil’s advocate here, let me make the case for Eric Schafer.  I wrote a blog post a while ago identifying the reasons why I think “Red” has a chance against the TUF winner.  Schafer is a BJJ wizard who has the ability to submit anybody.  He’s also shown his ability to take a really got shot against Houston Alexander.  In addition to those two points, Schafer’s opponent, Ryan Bader, is still a little green.  If anyone can be submitted, it is a relatively inexperienced, wrestling based mixed martial artist (ask CB Dollaway).

Bader has the wrestling to make this fight happen where he pleases.  He has also shown powerful striking against Vinny Magalhaes.  Schafer isn’t much of a striker or wrestler, so he is going to have his hands full.  If this fight takes place on the feet, I give the edge to Bader on pure power and athleticism.  If this fight hits the mat, it is a coin flip.  I think that “Darth” Bader ultimately pulls this one out because he will keep it standing, much like the Magalhaes fight.  He has to know the danger of going to the mat against Schafer…or does he?

My pick:  Ryan Bader via TKO in the 3rd

Betting play: I can definitely make sense of a Schafer bet at +360 on BetCRIS, Bookmaker or Diamond.  If this fight gets to the mat, it is 50/50.  The ladder odds absolutely justify the former.

Jorge Rivera vs. Rob Kimmons

UFC veteran, Jorge Rivera, is looking to make one last run at a belt…and he will be looking to get up another rung on the latter against a tough Rob Kimmons. I agree with Five Ounces Of Pain’s analysis of this fight for the most part.  Kimmons has the edge in the grappling department and Rivera has the edge in the striking department.  Kimmons has never been knocked out, and Rivera has 3 sub losses on his record.

Rivera has KO power that he has shown against foes like Kendall Grove, but his notoriously poor submission defense will give Kimmons the opportunity he needs to end this fight with a submission of his choosing.  If Kimmons stays away from the KO punch, this fight is his.  If Rivera comes into this fight like he came into the Nissen Osterneck fight, his conditioning will also be suspect come round 2.

My pick:  Rob Kimmons via submission in the 2nd

Betting play: Kimmons is at -150 right now on all books including Bookmaker and Sportsbook.  I’m not in love with a single bet at those odds, but include Kimmons in your parlay.

Pat Barry vs. Antoni Hardonk

If you are tailgating in the Staples Center parking lot during the prelims and you hear loud cracks, you can pretty much guess which fight is going on.  This contest pits two very good kickboxers against one another.  Antoni Hardonk and Pat Barry are former training partners who are looking to prove who has the superior striking.

I’ve read people suggesting that Antoni Hardonk take this fight to the ground because of Pat Barry’s abysmal grappling.  This wouldn’t be a horrible idea.  Although Hardonk hardly utilized it, his submission game is serviceable.  However, I strongly doubt this fight will hit the mat.

Hardonk (6’4) is a lot longer than the undersized Barry(5’11).  Hardonk’s reach will do wonders for him in this fight.  Assuming these two are evenly matched strikers, you have to give the nod to the fighter who has the strongest external game and the size advantage.  Hardonk has better grappling and a longer reach.  Unless math turns its back on me, this is Hardonk’s fight to lose.  Hopefully Pat Barry gives the LHW division a go.

My pick:  Antoni Hardonk via TKO in the 3rd

Betting play: Hardonk is a good play here.  The odds have been pretty even since going up, but have shifted in Antoni Hardonk’s favor as of late.  Regardless, getting Hardonk at -115 on BetOnline is recommended.

Kyle Kingsbury vs. Razak Al-Hassan

To be honest, I haven’t been impressed with either guy really.  You hear the word “potential” thrown around a lot when talking about Razak Al-Hassan.  He is a Taekwondo and BJJ fighter who has 4 submissions and 1 knockout in his career.  In his one UFC fight, he looked absolutely awful against Steve Cantwell.  There is no shame losing to a guy like Cantwell, but Al-Hassan never looked comfortable.

Kingsbury, a TUF alum, hasn’t proven to be a world beater either.  He lost to Ryan Bader and Krzysztof Soszynski on the show, and dropped a decision to Tom Lawlor at the finale.

This fight is pretty much a coin flip, and the odds show Kingsbury as a favorite.  I agree with that.  He has a better camp and more experience against tougher competition that Al-Hassan.

My pick:  Kyle Kingsbury via TKO in the 2nd

Betting play: This fight is a pick ‘em, and the -115/-115 odds on Sportsbook reflect that.  If you agree with me in that Kingsbury has the edge, getting him at -115 is a good bet.