The UFC’s landmark 100th (Zuffa) event will take place this Saturday, July 11th in Las Vegas, NV.  UFC fans will get two title bouts on this historic card.  UFC Welterweight champion, Georges St. Pierre, will put the 170 lb. strap up against the number one contender, Thiago Alves.  UFC Heavyweight champion, Brock Lesnar, will also put his belt on the line against UFC Interim Heavyweight champion, Frank Mir.  In addition to the title bouts, UFC 100 will feature the battle of TUF coaches:  Dan Henderson vs. Michael Bisping.  Highly touted Korean judoka, Yoshihiro Akiyama, will be making his UFC debut as well.  Here are my predictions for the entire UFC 100 card.

Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir

Brock Lesnar will look to silence his remaining critics this Saturday and avenge his only career loss against Heavyweight Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist Frank Mir.  If you recall (how can we forget), Frank Mir put an immediate bump in front of the Lesnar hype train by submitting him in February 2008 at UFC 81.

There has been quite the back and forth between Mir and Lesnar leading up to this fight.  Mir believes this fight will be a battle of skill vs. size…a battle that was already won by Mir’s skill.  Lesnar, however, believes Mir got lucky by taking advantage of a MMA novice’s submission defense.  Who is right?  I believe both guys are right.

However, this is Brock Lesnar’s fight to lose.  In their first meeting, Lesnar dominated 99% of the fight leading up to a very costly mistake.  I believe Frank Mir was saved by referee Steve Mazzagatti’s controversial stand up.  Before the fighters were stood up, Lesnar showed complete control in the striking and wrestling department.

Frank Mir is a very, very good Heavyweight, but the odds are long on him catching lightning in a bottle again.  In his last two fights, Mir caught Lesnar in a miracle knee bar and out-boxed an aging Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, who was at about 50% for their fight.  Mir hasn’t impressed me as much as he has impressed everyone else.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, the only way you are going to beat Brock Lesnar is by submitting him off of your own back.  Is Frank Mir capable of this?  Absolutely.  The question is how will Frank Mir handle Lesnar’s speed, strength and top control.  If he handles it the same way as he did last fight, this fight will be over very quickly with Lesnar’s hand raised.

This fight will look a lot like their first fight, except there won’t be a Mazzagatti to stand the fighters up and there won’t be a tapping Brock Lesnar at the fight’s conclusion.  Mir’s boxing isn’t good enough to knock Lesnar out, Mir’s wrestling isn’t good enough to keep the fight standing and Lesnar isn’t likely to get caught in another submission.

My pick: Brock Lesnar via ground and pound KO in the 1st.

Georges St. Pierre vs. Thiago Alves

Ladies and gentlemen, this is the most intriguing fight on this card.  Before Thiago Alves‘ destruction of Matt Hughes, I would have said nobody is ready to take on Georges St. Pierre.  However, it is hard to deny the presence of the young Brazilian.  Alves’ last four fights have been victories over Josh Koscheck, Matt Hughes, Karo Parisyan and Chris Lytle.  He has built up a very impressive resume in his stay in the UFC and definitely deserves the title shot.

Thiago Alves is arguably the most dangerous striker in the UFC’s talented Welterweight division.  His KO of UFC legend, Matt Hughes, and stoppages of Karo Parisyan and Chris Lytle further proved that point.  He is also a huge Welterweight, cutting at least 20 lbs. to make 170.  However, the current champ at 170 lbs. will be his stiffest test to date.

I don’t need to go into St. Pierre’s past…everyone knows the story.  The one interesting thing that I have found on St. Pierre’s record is his lack of high-caliber striker competition.  His record is filled with victories over guys like Matt Hughes, BJ Penn, Josh Koscheck, Jon Fitch, Karo Parisyan, Frank Trigg, Jason Miller, Sean Sherk, Matt Serra and Jay Hieron….all very good fighters, but primarily grapplers.  St. Pierre’s lack of competition in the striking department is his only weakness in this fight.

With that being said, I still believe St. Pierre wins this fight at least 75% of the time.  Georges St. Pierre is one of the three best mixed martial artists alive, and is arguably one of the most well rounded fighters on Earth.  St. Pierre can hang with Alves standing, although that is where Alves is the strongest and St. Pierre is at a disadvantage.  Expect St. Pierre come in with the same game plan as he did against BJ Penn:  takedowns early and often and top control.  Although Alves is strong, he will be outmatched on the ground.  I also question Alves’ gas tank…he has been notorious for having problems cutting weight.

As long as St. Pierre doesn’t try to prove a point by standing with Alves or doesn’t catch a knee on the way in for a double leg, his wrestling and cardio should win him this fight.  Alves will give him a hell of a fight, but St. Pierre will still get the late stoppage.

My pick: Georges St. Pierre via TKO in the 4th round.

Jon Fitch vs. Paulo Thiago

If Paulo Thiago goes on to beat Josh Koscheck and Jon Fitch in succession, give him the next title shot.  Seriously.  Paulo Thiago, who is primarily a submission fighter, shocked plenty MMA fans with his KO of Josh Koscheck this past February.  In that fight, Koscheck was getting the better of the Brazilian on the feet before getting knocked cold.

Although Thiago is coming off of a stunning victory, he comes into his fight at UFC 100 as a sizeable underdog.  The reason for this is Jon Fitch is one of the best Welterweights the UFC has to offer.  His 8 fight UFC winning streak put him in the same category as the legendary Royce Gracie and current Middleweight king, Anderson Silva.  Fitch’s only UFC loss came to Georges St. Pierre at UFC 87.

Fitch has stifling wrestling, winning most of his fights by a controlling decision or chokes set up by his wrestling.  As with any other wrestler vs. submission fighter contest, there is always a chance of the wrestler getting subbed with a triangle, armbar or guillotine.  I would sure put the odds for this fight closer than the current lines (Fitch -400 Thiago +335), but I still feel confident that Fitch is too experienced to get upset.  Fitch’s only submission loss was in his first professional MMA fight against Mike Pyle in 2002.  I don’t see Thiago being able to handle Fitch’s frustrating wrestling.

My pick: Jon Fitch via unanimous decision.

Dan Henderson vs. Michael Bisping

When the odds came out a month or two ago for this fight, Dan Henderson was a huge favorite…in the +400 range.  Simply looking at the two most recent TUF coaches’ records, this line might seem accurate.  However, there are aspects to this fight that slip through the black and white picture of wins and losses.

Dan Henderson is a world class, olympic level Greco Roman wrestler who possesses a devastating right hand to go along with his grappling prowess.  With over 30 career fights, including competition in the UFC and Pride FC, Henderson is as experienced as anyone.  Henderson’s most recent UFC stint, however, has been a luke warm 2-2 with losses to Anderson Silva and Quinton Jackson…both title fights.  His last fight was a razor thin decision victory over UFC star, Rich Franklin.

Michael Bisping has been on an absolute tear since losing to Rashad Evans and dropping to Middleweight.  He destroyed Jason Day, Charles McCarthy and Chris Leben in his path to fighting the UFC’s 185 lb. elite.  Henderson will be the Brit’s stiffest test to date…but a test I believe he is ready for.

Bisping is still a huge underdog, but I believe good money can be made off of “The Count” here.  I don’t believe Bisping’s last 3 victories were because of sub-par competition.  I think his skill has really progressed that much.  This is a fight pitting an up and comer against a legendary fighter in the twilight of his career.  Henderson’s run in the UFC has been less than stellar, and I believe Bisping has what it takes to win this fight.

Bisping is very well rounded and has a distinct advantage if this fight stays standing.  Naturally, Henderson will have the edge on the floor…but Bisping’s submissions shouldn’t be underrated.  Bisping is a much more technical striker than Henderson, which should neutralize Henderson’s monster right hand.  Bisping’s takedown defense will also be markedly improved for this fight.

Although Henderson probably wins this fight about 55-60% of the time, I still really like the upset here.  I can definitely see Bisping out striking Henderson and having a better tank than “Hollywood” in the later rounds.  At Bisping’s current odds, I think he’s a terrific bet.

My pick: Michael Bisping via split decision.

Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Alan Belcher

UFC 100 marks the debut for the controversial Korean judoka, Yoshihiro Akiyama.  “Sexiyama”‘s popularity has given him monikers such as “the Chuck Liddell of Korea”.  All publicity and self marketing aside, Yoshihiro Akiyama is a very skilled grappler who possesses knockout power.

The UFC is certainly not giving Akiyama a lay up in his first fight for the stateside MMA giant.  He will square off against Alan Belcher, the same fighter who gave fellow Korean, Denis Kang, his first UFC loss.  Belcher is primarily a Muay Thai fighter, but has 5 submission victories to his credit.

The lines are slightly off on this fight, with Akiyama getting the name-value nod.  I think Belcher is a much tougher fight for the Korean than the sports books are giving him credit for.  Belcher will have the advantage on the feet, but Akiyama’s judo background will give him the edge in the clinch and on the ground.

If Belcher can avoid the clinch and keep the fight standing, there is a solid chance of an upset here.  Akiyama won’t be able to pull off his signature Ezekiel choke without a gi.  He also won’t be able to use illegal body lotion stateside.  Akiyama’s submission game is superior to Belcher’s, but “The Talent” can hold his own on the ground.

Much like the Henderson/Bisping fight, I believe the favorite wins this fight more than he loses, but the underdog is a solid value bet.  Belcher wins this fight about 35-40% of the time, while his odds give him a 30% chance.  I am in an upset picking mood, so I like Belcher welcoming Akiyama into the UFC with a KO.

My pick: Alan Belcher via KO in the 2nd.

Stephan Bonnar vs. Mark Coleman

This is a very interesting fight to me.  Both of these guys are coming off of rough outings.  Stephan Bonnar got beat every second of his last fight against the up and coming Jon Jones.  Mark Coleman looked decent against a struggling Shogun Rua for a little while, but gassed and everything went down hill from there en route to a TKO loss.

Bonnar has a striking, submission and cardio advantage over the UFC Hall Of Famer.  Coleman will have the advantage in the wrestling and strength department.  The line on this fight is Bonnar -300 Coleman +300, putting Bonnar as a victor 75% of the time.  Depending on which Mark Coleman comes out, this line can either be very accurate or way off.

Bonnar’s weaknesses lie in his wrestling and wrestling defense.  Jon Jones was able to manhandle him with his wrestling and unorthodox striking.  Besides that, Bonnar is a golden glove level boxer and high level BJJ player.  Coleman will have about a 5 minute window to win this fight.  If Coleman comes out ready and gets a quick takedown, it isn’t far fetched to think “The Hammer” can ground and pound out a TKO upset.

However, Bonnar simply has more ways to win this fight.  He has the ability to knock out or submit Coleman.  In addition, if history is an indicator, he will be able to pick apart Coleman in the late 2nd and 3rd round.

My pick: Stephan Bonnar via KO in the 3rd.

Jon Jones vs. Jake O’Brien

Everyone’s favorite blanket, Jake O’Brien, is being fed to the wolves here.  The UFC thinks very highly of their biggest Light Heavyweight prospect, Jonny “Bones” Jones.  Jon Jones‘ unique and high powered offense was on full display in his last two fights against Stephan Bonnar and Andre Gusmao.  He has a solid amateur wrestling background to go along with a very unusual offensive arsenal full of unorthodox strikes and throws.

Jake O’Brien is a very good wrestler who holds victories over Heath Herring and Christian Wellisch, but Jones’ wrestling prowess and offensive firepower will be too much for the “Irishman”.  I don’t expect Jones to get his first UFC finish here, but he will do enough to earn a decisive unanimous decision.  Hopefully, a win here will give Jones a shot at a bigger name Light Heavyweight…perhaps the loser of Matt Hamill/Brandon Vera or Keith Jardine/Thiago Silva.

My pick: Jon Jones via unanimous decision.

Dong Hyun Kim vs. TJ Grant

This undercard striker vs. grappler fight should be very entertaining.  Dong Hyun “Stun Gun” Kim is coming off of an overturned split decision loss to Karo Parisyan…a fight I believe he should have won.  Kim, thanks to the fight being overturned, is still undefeated at 11-0 with 6 KOs.  He is a well rounded fighter who has shown everything but incredible toughness in the Matt Brown fight to dangerous elbow strikes against Jason Tan.  He is also a very skilled judoka.

He will have no easy task ahead of him when he stands across the octagon from up and coming Canadian grappling wizard, TJ Grant.  Grant has a staggering 12 submission victories to his credit, including submissions over former UFC fighters Forrest Petz and Chad Reiner.

If “Stun Gun” has given us one thing in the octagon, it has been suspense.  Many thought he should have won the decision over Karo Parisyan, while many think he should have lost the decision against Matt Brown.  We shouldn’t have to worry about this fight going to the judges, though.  I think Grant’s submission prowess will give him a tapout victory over a very tough Dong Hyun Kim, moving him up the Welterweight ladder.

My pick: TJ Grant via submission (armbar) in the 1st round.

Jim Miller vs. Mac Danzig

In a bout that would surely be on the televised portion of a weaker card, IFL standout Jim Miller will square off against “The Ultimate Fighter” winner, Mac Danzig.  Miller is a -175 favorite in this upcoming fight, possibly due to Danzig dropping his last 2 fights.

Both of these fighters are coming off of a loss:  Miller got decisioned by Gray Maynard and Danzig got triangled by Josh Neer.  Both Welterweights have a wealth of experience and well rounded MMA games.  Danzig had a lot of problems with Neer’s active guard in his past fight…a problem which he should have definitely corrected before his fight this Saturday.  Both of these guys are submission threats, with Danzig having the edge on the feet.

Although Mac is a +160 underdog here, I like his odds.  Both of these fighters are pretty evenly matched…making Danzig’s 38% odds very favorable.  Danzig’s two losses were both against top Lightweights in Clay Guida and Josh Neer.  I believe he is slightly better than Jim Miller in every aspect and will get a hard fought decision win.

My pick: Mac Danzig via split decision.

CB Dollaway vs. Tom Lawlor

If there are two guys I like to hate on, it’s CB Dollaway and Josh Koscheck.  I don’t think I’m alone when I say that I enjoyed Dolloway’s two fights against Amir Sadollah.  With that being said, it is obvious that CB is learning from his mistakes and becoming a better mixed martial artist.  His past two victories over a very game Mike Massenzio and Jesse Taylor have no doubt given him a huge boost of confidence going into his upcoming fight against Tom Lawlor.

Tom Lawlor is another “Ultimate Fighter” alum, coming off of a decision victory over Kyle Kingsbury.  Lawlor is primarily a wrestler, but does have KO power.  He trains with a very good camp in American Top Team, who no doubt will have him ready for his fight against Dollaway.

Although Lawlor is a game competitor, I believe he is outclassed by Dollaway.  I actually think CB is taking a step back in competition by taking the fight against Lawlor.  CB’s bread and butter is wrestling, as is Lawlor’s.  However, CB is a little bit better wrestler and a more well rounded mixed martial artist.  I am going to call the return of the Peruvian necktie!

My pick: CB Dollaway via submission (Peruvian necktie) in the 2nd.

Matt Grice vs. Shannon Gugerty

In the opening fight of the night, Matt Grice will take on Shannon Gugerty.  Matt Grice is primarily a wrestler with his lone UFC victory over Jason Black.  Gugerty is a more well rounded fighter who has faced slightly better competition in the likes of Spencer Fisher, Cub Swanson and Dale Hartt.

Grice’s wrestling will likely work against him by giving Gugerty the opportunity to secure his second UFC submission win.  As I said earlier, Gugerty is a better all around fighter than Grice and should have no problem getting the W in his 3rd UFC fight.

My pick: Shannon Gugerty via submission in the 1st.