Strikeforce’s possibly cursed “Carano VS. Cyborg” event will be taking place this Saturday, August 15th in San Jose, CA.  It will be headlined by possibly the biggest fight in the history of women’s MMA:  Gina Carano against Cris “Cyborg” Santos.  Strikeforce’s Light Heavyweight championship will also be up for grabs as Renato “Babalu” Sobral defends his title against Gegard Mousasi.  Mitsuhiro Ishida will also be stepping in for an injured Josh Thomson to get a shot at Strikeforce’s interim Lightweight title against Gilbert Melendez.  Here are my predictions for the main card and the Kyle/Werdum fight.

Gina Carano vs. Cristiane Santos

In the biggest women’s MMA fight in history, Gina Carano will face Cris “Cyborg” Santos in what is sure to be an exciting, memorable contest.  Many people are calling this “Beauty vs. The Beast”, but frankly I don’t care about looks in this one.  These two women are mixed martial artists, and should be treated accordingly.  Anyway…

Santos comes from the famed Chute Boxe in Brazil, and her style reflects her tutelage.  She has an aggressive, violent, powerful Muay Thai attack that is as intimidating as it is effective.  She is like a female Wanderlei Silva.  Cyborg holds a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, so she knows how to conduct herself on the mat.  Gina Carano also trains with a high level camp in Xtreme Couture.  Carano is a Muay Thai practicioner…with a style that is a bit more polished but less powerful than Cyborg.

On paper, these two ladies are pretty well matched.  Both are 5’7″, both will “hopefully” be the same weight and both have 7 wins in their MMA careers.  Unquestionably, this will be the most difficult fight in both of these fighters’ lives.  My pick is for Cristiane Santos because her aggressiveness and tenacity is going to be a hard thing for Carano to deal with.  Not knocking Carano’s training, but Santos’ training is more intense that some of her male counterparts.

Although Santos’ striking is less technical than Carano’s, it will be the deciding factor in this fight.  For those who think that Gina’s gameplan is to take this fight to the mat, Cyborg is stronger, not to mention no slouch at the submission game.  She fought a very good grappler in Shayna Baszler and was able to handle everything thrown at her.  Cyborg will be the better conditioned fighter, and knock out Gina Carano in the 2nd round.

My pick:  Cristiane Santos via KO in the 2nd round

Betting play: I bet on this fight as soon as the odds came out when the line was -115/-115.  It was kind of like Christmas, being given odds like that.  I am confident that Santos takes this fight, and I still think a bet up to -180 is warranted.  You can get Santos at -175 at Bookmaker and Diamond.

Gegard Mousasi vs. Renato Sobral

Now that the Diaz/Hieron fight is off, I bet the Strikeforce execs are sure glad they were able to lock up this fight.  Former UFC Light Heavyweight contender, Renato “Babalu” Sobral will be defending his Strikeforce Light Heavyweight belt against the surging Gegard Mousasi.

Let me say first and foremost that I have the utmost respect for Babalu, but I do think he’s overrated.  There shouldn’t be a belt around anyone’s waist for beating Bobby Southworth.  Sobral’s BJJ is world class, but he can be knocked out by a powerful striker (i.e Chuck Liddell and Jason Lambert).  In addition, the quality of his recent opponents haven’t exactly been at a “world beater” level.

Gegard will have the edge in the standup due to his kickboxing background and overall crisper striking game.  Babalu is competent on the feet, but lacks KO power.  2 of his 3 career KOs came as the result of now-illegal strikes in American MMA (soccer kicks and stomps to the head of a downed opponent).  Sobral primarily uses his strikes to set up takedowns and submissions.

Sobral will be the better of the two on the ground, but Mousasi is a skilled grappler as well.  He was able to keep composed against very dangerous grapplers like Hector Lombard and Ronaldo Souza.  Since Babalu has to get this fight to the ground to have a chance at beating Mousasi, I can see him leaving himself open for serious punishment on the feet.  Mousasi will nullify Sobral’s dangerous ground game by catching him in the 2nd round after a feeling out period.

My pick:  Gegard Mousasi via KO in the 2nd

Betting play: The line on this fight was far more attractive when it was scheduled for Affliction – Trilogy.  Right now, I think the line is pretty well set (Mousasi -220, Sobral +200).  I like Mousasi in this fight, and would be willing to bet on him up if the odds came down a bit.  If Mousasi’s line hits under -210, it is a wise play.  As for right now, I am going to stay away.

Gilbert Melendez vs. Mitsuhiro Ishida

Japanese mixed martial artist Mitsuhiro Ishida will be filling in for the injured Josh Thomson to face Gilbert Melendez for Strikeforce’s interim Lightweight championship.  This fight will be a rematch from their 2007 meeting, a fight which saw Ishida win a hard fought 2 round decision.

This bout will be a clash of styles, as Ishida will be utilizing his Clay Guida-esque suffocating wrestling to control and wear down Melendez.  Gilbert Melendez will be looking to cause damage to Ishida with his heavy hands while on the feet.

Ishida’s grappling and conditioning are superior to that of Melendez.  I believe this will play a big factor in this contest’s outcome.  Melendez didn’t have an answer for Ishida’s lighting quick shots and takedowns, and I don’t expect him to have found one in time for the rematch.  There is always the possibility of Gilbert putting Ishida asleep with his heavy hands, but I don’t see “The Endless Warrior” allowing Melendez to go on the offensive at all.  This fight will look a lot like the first meeting, with a similar outcome.

My pick:  Mitsuhiro Ishida via unanimous decision

Betting play: Ishida came into this fight as a pretty sizeable underdog.  This is surprising because Melendez has already lost to Ishida, and is 2-2 in his past 4 fights (beating Rodrigo Damm and Gabe Lemley…not top tier competiton).  I strongly recommend a play on him at his current odds of +200 on BetOnline.  Feel free to take Ishida anywhere over +160.

Jay Hieron vs. Jesse Taylor

Yet another late replacement, as the infamous TUF star Jesse Taylor steps in for Nick Diaz to take on Jay Hieron.  Since his stint on the UFC reality show, Jesse Taylor has gone undefeated in smaller events.  He has beaten the likes of Drew Fickett and Dong Sik Yoon.

Xtreme Couture’s Jay Hieron has also been successful as of late.  His most recent victory was a knockout win over Jason High at Affliction – Day Of Reckoning.

Both of these fighters have noted wrestling pedigrees.  Jesse Taylor will be looking for the takedown regardless.  If he was determined to take down a wrestler like CB Dollaway, he will surely try to take Hieron off of his feet.  Taylor is a high level wrestler, and does have the tools to control and possibly submit Hieron.  However, Jay Hieron’s superior training camp, polished submission game and experience will be exactly what he needs to catch Taylor and force a tap.

My pick:  Jay Hieron via submission (guillotine choke) in the 1st round

Betting play: Since this fight was a late replacement, it isn’t available on many sportsbooks.  As of this posting, the line was available on Sportsbook at Hieron -190/Taylor +160.  These are very good odds for Hieron, seeing as he is the better overall fighter and Taylor is taking the fight on short notice.  I suggest a moderate play on Hieron at -190 and better.

Fabricio Werdum vs. Mike Kyle

From a skill level, Fabricio Werdum should be (and is) a huge favorite over Mike Kyle.  Werdum has spend a long time on the top 1o Heavyweight list, and has beaten guys like Gabriel Gonzaga, Brandon Vera, Aleksander Emelianenko and Alistair Overeem.  “Vai Cavalo” is a world class BJJ champion, and is a well versed Judoka.  He has further rounded his game out by showing KO power against Brandon Vera and Gabriel Gonzaga in his stint with the UFC.

Like I stated in a blog post earlier this week, Werdum wins this fight more often than not on paper.  Werdum is a very well rounded, accomplished mixed martial artist while Mike Kyle is pretty much a one trick pony.  I have to be honest with my readers though…I can’t put my finger on it but I have a feeling that Mike Kyle is going to knock Werdum out.  Still, I have nowhere near the balls to pick against Werdum in this fight.  Kyle wins this fight 4 times out of 20, and fate will decide if this weekend is one of those 4.

My pick:  Fabricio Werdum via submission (rear naked choke) in the 1st.

Betting play: I have a personal guideline that states that I always bet on a fighter who is at or over +400.  The fact of the matter is that if you are a professional fighter, you generally have better than a 20% chance of winning no matter who you are fighting.  There is a very real possibility that Kyle can knock Werdum out…he has shown his ability to surprise people in the Cavalcante fight.  I’m throwing a small flier on Kyle on Bookmaker, Diamond or 5Dimes at +400 or over.