UFC Fight Night 21 Predictions

UFC Fight Night 21 – Florian VS. Gomi takes place tonight in North Carolina.  The main event features the UFC debut on an MMA legend, as Takanori Gomi takes on former UFC Lightweight title contender Kenny Florian.  That Lightweight fight could very well determine who gets the next shot at BJ Penn.  The co-main event will feature TUF winner Roy Nelson against BJJ ace and the tallest UFC Heavyweight Stefan Struve.

There isn’t a ton of value on this card, both main events are pretty lopsided.  Judging by the Pros’ Picks, only two fights on this card are remotely competitive.  I tend to agree in large part, but I do have an upset or two in mind.

As always, these picks are the opinion of one man. Follow my betting advice with discretion and only wager as much as you feel comfortable losing. I will only be writing predictions and betting analysis for those bouts in which I believe have betting value. If you want more information on the card in its entirety, check out MMAMoneyLine’s “Pros’ Picks” for UFC Fight Night 21. Without further adieu, here are MMAMoneyLine’s official picks and betting analysis for UFC Fight Night 21 – Florian VS. Gomi.

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The Future Of The UFC Heavyweight Division

UFC Heavyweights

Joe Silva…give me a call!  Right now, the UFC’s Heavyweight division is as stacked (if not more) as any other weight class in history including UFC’s Light Heavyweight and Welterweight juggernauts of yore.  Zuffa’s Heavyweight class has it all:  new age Heavyweight behemoths like Lesnar, Carwin, Velasquez and Duffee; BJJ aces like Nogueira, Mir, Gonzaga, Struve and Nelson and feel good strikers like dos Santos, Slice, Mitrione, Buentello, Kongo, Barry, Cro Cop and Yvel.

With all the chaos, promise and excitement involved in the UFC’s heaviest weight class, I couldn’t help myself to analyze what the near and distant future holds.  Here is a thorough rundown of the scheduled and rumored upcoming Heavyweight contests, as well as my opinion on what late 2010 and 2011 should and hopefully will bring. Be warned, this isn’t short!

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UFC Fight Night 21 Pros’ Picks

 
Total
 
Kenny Florian vs.
Takanori Gomi
Florian
Florian
Florian
Florian
Gomi
Florian
Florian
Florian 86%
 
Roy Nelson vs.
Stefan Struve
Nelson
Nelson
Nelson
Nelson
Nelson
Nelson
Nelson
Nelson 100%
 
Yushin Okami vs.
Lucio Linhares
Okami
Okami
Okami
Linhares
Okami
Okami
Okami
Okami 86%
 
Gleison Tibau vs.
Caol Uno
Tibau
Tibau
Tibau
Tibau
Uno
Tibau
Tibau
Tibau 86%
 
Nate Quarry vs.
Jorge Rivera
Quarry
Quarry
Quarry
Rivera
Quarry
Quarry
Quarry
Quarry 86%
 
Ross Pearson vs.
Dennis Siver
Pearson
Siver
Pearson
Pearson
Pearson
Pearson
Pearson
Pearson 86%
 
Jason High vs.
Charlie Brenneman
High
High
High
High
High
Brenneman
High
High 86%
 
Gerald Harris vs.
Mario Miranda
Harris
Harris
Harris
Harris
Harris
Harris
Miranda
Harris 86%
 
Andre Winner vs.
Rafaello Oliveira
Winner
Winner
Oliveira
Winner
Winner
Winner
Winner
Winner 86%
 
Rob Emerson vs.
Nik Lentz
Lentz
Emerson
Emerson
Emerson
Emerson
Lentz
Lentz
Emerson 57%
 
Ronnys Torres vs.
Jacob Volkmann
Volkmann
Volkmann
Torres
Volkmann
Torres
Torres
Torres
Torres 57%
 
Tiebreak
Florian/UD
Florian/SUB/2
Florian/UD
Florian/UD
Gomi/KO/2
Florian/TKO/2
Florian/UD
-
 
Total
9/11 (81%)
7/11 (64%)
6/11 (55%)
8/11 (73%)
5/11 (45%)
9/11 (81%)
7/11 (64%)
TIE
 

MMA ValorMMA Betting Blog

UFC 111 Predictions

UFC 111 – St. Pierre VS. Hardy takes place this Saturday, March 27 in the Garden State.  For those of you who have suffered through the UFC’s recent title fight drought (except for you BJ, thanks!), UFC 111 gives us not one but TWO belt-worthy contests.

The main event features seemingly unstoppable UFC Welterweight champion George “Rush” St. Pierre squaring off against sledgehammer handed Dan “Outlaw” Hardy.  The co-main event is an interim Heavyweight title bout between Frank Mir and Shane Carwin.  Due to Thiago Alves’ last minute health issues, Jon Fitch will now be facing Ben Saunders.

As always, these picks are the opinion of one man.  Follow my betting advice with discretion and only wager as much as you feel comfortable losing.  I will only be writing predictions and betting analysis for those bouts in which I believe have betting value.  If you want more information on the card in its entirety, check out MMAMoneyLine’s “Pros’ Picks” for UFC 111.  Without further adieu, here are MMAMoneyLine’s official picks and betting analysis for UFC 111 – St. Pierre VS. Hardy

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UFC 111 Pros’ Picks

 
Total
 
Georges St. Pierre vs.
Dan Hardy
St. Pierre
St. Pierre
St. Pierre
Hardy
Hardy
St. Pierre
St. Pierre
St. Pierre 71%
 
Frank Mir vs.
Shane Carwin
Mir
Mir
Mir
Carwin
Carwin
Carwin
Carwin
Carwin 57%
 
Jon Fitch vs.
Ben Saunders
Fitch
Fitch
Fitch
Fitch
Saunders
Fitch
Fitch
Fitch 86%
 
Jim Miller vs.
Mark Bocek
Miller
Miller
Miller
Miller
Miller
Miller
Miller
Miller 100%
 
Kurt Pellegrino vs.
Fabricio Camoes
Pellegrino
Pellegrino
Pellegrino
Pellegrino
Pellegrino
Pellegrino
Pellegrino
Pellegrino 100%
 
Nate Diaz vs.
Rory Markham
Diaz
Diaz
Diaz
Diaz
Diaz
Diaz
Markham
Diaz 86%
 
Ricardo Almeida vs.
Matt Brown
Almeida
Brown
Brown
Almeida
Almeida
Brown
Almeida
Almeida 57%
 
Rodney Wallace vs.
Jared Hamman
Hamman
Wallace
Wallace
Wallace
Wallace
Hamman
Wallace
Wallace 71%
 
Rousimar Palhares vs.
Tomasz Drwal
Palhares
Palhares
Palhares
Palhares
Palhares
Palhares
Palhares
Palhares 100%
 
Matt Riddle vs.
Greg Soto
Riddle
Riddle
Riddle
Soto
Riddle
Riddle
Riddle
Riddle 86%
 
Tiebreak
St. Pierre/TKO/3
St. Pierre/TKO/2
St. Pierre/TKO/4
Hardy/TKO/1
Hardy/KO/3
St. Pierre/TKO/2
St. Pierre/TKO/3
-
 
Total
9/10 (90%)
7/10 (70%)
7/10 (70%)
7/10 (70%)
7/10 (70%)
9/10 (90%)
8/10 (80%)
 

MMA Betting Blog

James Irvin’s Weight Change

Due to the reaction on the ‘net of James Irvin‘s dramatic weight cut, I decided to do a little side by side comparison. Here is a little collage comparing James Irvin over three weight classes: Heavyweight against Mike Kyle at UFC 51 in 2007, Light Heavyweight against Luis Cane at UFC 79 and Middleweight against Alessio Sakara at UFC On Versus 1.

Pretty big difference here, especially between 205 and 185. Judging from all the Irvin interviews I’ve seen in the last few weeks, he seems to be taking everything in stride. I still think he’s going to smash Sakara, but he might need a CLIF bar between rounds.

(Pictures courtesy of UFC.com)

UFC On Versus 1 Predictions

The first live UFC event broadcasted on Versus takes place Sunday, March 21st in Broomfield, Colorado.  UFC On Versus 1 features a Light Heavyweight main event pitting Brandon Vera against Jon Jones.  In the co-main event, Brazilian Jiu Jitsu ace Gabriel Gonzaga takes on Brazilian punch you in the face ace Junior dos Santos.

As always, I will only cover which fights have betting value.  UFC On Versus 1 gives us MMA bettors a range of interesting options.  If you have reviewed MMAMoneyLine’s Pros’ Picks for UFC On Versus 1, you already know that this card is a bit lopsided.  7 out of 11 fights are clean sweeps (100% for one fighter).  On the other hand, 3 out of the 4 fights that aren’t clean sweeps are practically coin flips.  Here is where MMAMoneyLine sees the value in UFC On Versus 1:  Vera VS. Jones

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UFC on Versus 1 Pros’ Picks

 
Total
 
Jon Jones vs.
Brandon Vera
Vera
Jones
Jones
Jones
Jones
Jones
Jones
Jones 86%
 
Junior dos Santos vs.
Gabriel Gonzaga
dos Santos
dos Santos
dos Santos
dos Santos
dos Santos
dos Santos
dos Santos
dos Santos 100%
 
Cheick Kongo vs.
Paul Buentello
Kongo
Kongo
Kongo
Kongo
Kongo
Kongo
Kongo
Kongo 100%
 
James Irvin vs.
Alessio Sakara
Irvin
Sakara
Irvin
Sakara
Irvin
Sakara
Irvin
Irvin 57%
 
Clay Guida vs.
Shannon Gugerty
Guida
Guida
Guida
Guida
Guida
Guida
Guida
Guida 100%
 
John Howard vs.
Daniel Roberts
Howard
Howard
Howard
Howard
Howard
Howard
Howard
Howard 100%
 
Chase Gormley vs.
Brendan Schaub
Schaub
Schaub
Schaub
Schaub
Schaub
Schaub
Schaub
Schaub 100%
 
Mike Pierce vs.
Julio Paulino
Pierce
Pierce
Pierce
Pierce
Pierce
Pierce
Pierce
Pierce 100%
 
Vladimir Matyushenko vs.
Eliot Marshall
Matyushenko
Matyushenko
Marshall
Matyushenko
Marshall
Marshall
Marshall
Marshall 57%
 
Duane Ludwig vs.
Darren Elkins
Ludwig
Ludwig
Ludwig
Ludwig
Ludwig
Ludwig
Ludwig
Ludwig 100%
 
Eric Schafer vs.
Jason Brilz
Brilz
Schafer
Schafer
Schafer
Brilz
Schafer
Brilz
Schafer 57%
 
Tiebreak
Jones/UD
Jones/TKO/2
Jones/UD
Jones/TKO
Jones/KO/2
Jones/UD
Jones/UD
-
 
Total
8/11 (73%)
9/11 (82%)
7/11 (64%)
9/11 (82%)
8/11 (73%)
8/11 (73%)
8/11 (73%)
TIE
 

Watch Kalib RunMiddleEasy

The Ultimate Fighter 11 Season Odds

As usual, BetUS has posted odds for the upcoming season of The Ultimate Fighter.  Although the rumors of veteran fighters David Loiseau, Nick Thompson and Jason Lambert  turned out to be false, as did the intriguing possibilities of Robert Drysdale and Matt Major, this season should be fairly entertaining.

This season’s coaches, as you may have heard, are Chuck Liddell and Tito Ortiz.  I’m interested to see Chuck’s coaching ability.  Judging from his last go ’round, Tito Ortiz should handle the coaching reigns very well.  This season will lead up to a future fight, possibly at UFC 115, between the two former UFC Light Heavyweight champions (contrary to recent reports of a Chuck Liddell/Rich Franklin contest in June).

As of the writing of this post, Kyle Noke is the favorite at +600.  This Jackson Mixed Martial Arts fighter holds victories over the surging George Sotiropoulos and Bellator Middleweight champ Hector Lombard.  A few other favorites are Josh Bryant, Costantinos Philippou, Kris McCray and Kyacey Uscola.  For more information on this season’s fighters, Sherdog has an excellent writeup on each mixed martial artist.

The Ultimate Fighter 11 debuts March 31st after UFC Fight Night 21: Florian VS. Gomi. Enjoy an MMA packed end of March!

WEC 47 Pros’ Picks

 
Total
 
Brian Bowles vs.
Dominick Cruz
Bowles
Bowles
Bowles
Bowles
Bowles
Bowles
Bowles
Bowles 100%
 
Miguel Torres vs.
Joseph Benavidez
Torres
Torres
Torres
Torres
Torres
Torres
Benavidez
Torres 86%
 
Javier Vazquez vs.
Jens Pulver
Vazquez
Vazquez
Pulver
Vazquez
Pulver
Vazquez
Vazquez
Vazquez 71%
 
Deividas Taurosevicius vs.
LC Davis
Taurosevicius
Taurosevicius
Davis
Taurosevicius
Davis
Taurosevicius
Davis
Taurosevicius 57%
 
Karen Darabedyan vs.
Bart Palaszewski
Darabedyan
Darabedyan
Darabedyan
Darabedyan
Darabedyan
Darabedyan
Darabedyan
Darabedyan 100%
 
Leonard Garcia vs.
George Roop
Garcia
Garcia
Garcia
Garcia
Garcia
Garcia
Garcia
Garcia 100%
 
Danny Castillo vs.
Anthony Pettis
Castillo
Castillo
Castillo
Castillo
Castillo
Pettis
Castillo
Castillo 86%
 
Scott Jorgensen vs.
Chad George
Jorgensen
Jorgensen
Jorgensen
Jorgensen
Jorgensen
Jorgensen
Jorgensen
Jorgensen 100%
 
Chad Mendes vs.
Erik Koch
Mendes
Mendes
Mendes
Mendes
Mendes
Mendes
Mendes
Mendes 100%
 
Ricardo Lamas vs.
Bendy Casimir
Lamas
Lamas
Lamas
Lamas
Lamas
Lamas
Lamas
Lamas 100%
 
Fredson Paixao vs.
Courtney Buck
Paixao
Paixao
Paixao
Paixao
Paixao
Paixao
Paixao
Paixao 100%
 
Tiebreak
Bowles/SUB/3
-
Bowles/TKO/3
Bowles/TKO
Bowles/KO/1
Bowles/TKO/3
Bowles/TKO/2
-
 
Total
5/10 (50%)
5/10 (50%)
5/10 (50%)
5/10 (50%)
5/10 (50%)
6/10 (60%)
7/10 (70%)
 

MMAMafia

DREAM.13 – MARCH 22, 2010

 
 
Joachim Hansen
-145
-145
-
-
-125
-145
-145
-
-130
-
Bibiano Fernandez
+115
+115
-
-
-105
+115
+115
-
EVEN
-
 
Josh Barnett
-1200
-1100
-
-
-1400
-1100
-1100
-
-1400
-
Siala Siligia
+600
+600
-
-
+700
+600
+600
-
+700
-
 
Yoshiro Maeda
-240
-245
-
-
-200
-245
-245
-
-205
-
Cole Escovedo
+180
+195
-
-
+160
+195
+195
-
+165
-
 
KJ Noons
-225
-215
-
-
-250
-215
-215
-
-240
-
Andre Amade
+175
+175
-
-
+190
+175
+175
-
+190
-
 
Andrews Nakahara
-120
-115
-
-
-135
-115
-115
-
-135
-
Ryo Chonan
-110
-115
-
-
+105
-115
-115
-
+105
-
 
Katsunori Kikuno
-215
-207
-
-
-250
-207
-207
-
-240
-
Kuniyoshi Hironaka
+170
+167
-
-
+190
+167
+167
-
+190
-
 
Jimmy Ambriz
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Ikuhisa Minowa
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
 

Best Odds Updated 3/19/10 12:49 PM EST

Sports Betting at Sportsbook.com

STRIKEFORCE CHALLENGERS VII – JOHNSON VS. MAHE – MARCH 26, 2010

 
 
LaVar Johnson
-160
-
-165
-
-150
-
Lolohea Mahe
+130
+115
-
+115
+115
+115
-
+120
-
 
George Bush
-130
-128
-
-140
-130
-128
-128
-
-
Ron Humphrey
-102
-
EVEN
-102
-102
-
-105
-
 
Andre Galvao
-380
-358
-
-500
-358
-358
-
-500
-
Luke Stewart
+290
+288
-
+250
+288
+288
-
+300
-
 
Miesha Tate
-160
-160
-
-165
-170
-160
-160
-
-
Zoila Frausto
+130
+130
-
+135
+130
+130
-
+120
-
 
Justin Wilcox
-
-120
-135
-
-135
-
Shamar Bailey
-115
-115
-
-110
-115
-115
-
-
 
Ben Holscher
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Alex Trevino
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
 
Daniel Cormier
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
John Devine
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
 

Best Odds Updated 3/26/10 2:11 PM EST

Sports Betting at the Sportsbook

THE ULTIMATE FIGHTER 11 SEASON – JUNE 19, 2010

 
 
Kyle Noke
-
-
-
+600
-
-
-
-
-
-
Josh Bryant
-
-
-
+700
-
-
-
-
-
-
Kris KcCray
-
-
-
+800
-
-
-
-
-
-
Kyacey Uscola
-
-
-
+800
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clayton McKinney
-
-
-
+900
-
-
-
-
-
-
Chris Camozzi
-
-
-
+1200
-
-
-
-
-
-
Court McGee
-
-
-
+1200
-
-
-
-
-
-
Brad Tavares
-
-
-
+1500
-
-
-
-
-
-
James Hammortree
-
-
-
+1500
-
-
-
-
-
-
Jamie Yager
-
-
-
+1500
-
-
-
-
-
-
Nick Ring
-
-
-
+1500
-
-
-
-
-
-
Rick Attonito
-
-
-
+1500
-
-
-
-
-
-
Joseph Henle
-
-
-
+1800
-
-
-
-
-
-
Charles Blanchard
-
-
-
+1800
-
-
-
-
-
-
 

Best Odds Updated 4/5/10 12:35 PM EST Additional Information

STRIKEFORCE ST. LOUIS – HEAVY ARTILLERY – MAY 15, 2010

 
 
Alistair Overeem
-235
-245
-260
-250
-250
-245
-245
-235
-240
-263
Brett Rogers
+195
+195
+200
+185
+190
+195
+195
+195
+190
+180
 
Andrei Arlovski
-190
-175
-180
-180
-180
-175
-175
-190
-200
-227
Antonio Silva
+165
+145
+150
+140
+150
+145
+145
+165
+160
+157
 
Roger Gracie
-460
-500
-500
-500
-500
-500
-500
-460
-500
-556
Kevin Randleman
+365
+350
+350
+300
+325
+350
+350
+365
+300
+330
 
Ronaldo Souza
-550
-550
-550
-600
-600
-550
-550
-550
-500
-667
Joey Villasenor
+425
+400
+375
+350
+400
+400
+400
+425
+300
+375
 
Vitor Ribeiro
-135
-150
-170
-160
-160
-150
-150
-135
-145
-154
Lyle Beerbohm
+115
+120
+140
+120
+130
+120
+120
+115
+115
+112
 
Rafael Cavalcante
-155
-150
-165
-160
-160
-150
-150
-155
-150
-
Antwain Britt
+125
+120
+135
+120
+130
+120
+120
+125
+120
-
 
Justin DeMoney
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Jesse Finney
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
 
Lee Brousseau
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Francisco France
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
 
Mike Chandler
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Sal Woods
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
 
Pat Benson
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Erik Steenberg
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
 
Tom Aaron
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Matt Ricehouse
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
 
Darryl Cobb
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Booker DeRousse
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
 

Best Odds Updated 5/15/10 4:10 PM EST My Picks The Pros’ Picks

Sports Betting at Sportsbook.com

UFC 116 – LESNAR VS. CARWIN – JULY 3, 2010

 
 
Brock Lesnar
-135
-140
-140
-140
-140
-140
-140
-135
-140
-143
Shane Carwin
+115
+110
+110
+110
+110
+110
+110
+115
+110
+102
 
Yoshihiro Akiyama
-210
-210
-225
-210
-250
-210
-210
-210
-225
-227
Chris Leben
+175
+170
+185
+165
+190
+170
+170
+175
+185
+157
 
Chris Lytle
-200
-205
-215
-200
-210
-205
-205
-200
-210
-200
Matt Brown
+170
+165
+175
+160
+170
+165
+165
+170
+170
+140
 
Krzysztof Soszynski
-225
-220
-220
-230
-250
-220
-220
-225
-240
-233
Stephan Bonnar
+185
+180
+180
+180
+190
+180
+180
+185
+190
+160
 
George Sotiropoulos
-180
-170
-170
-200
-200
-170
-170
-180
-215
-189
Kurt Pellegrino
+158
+140
+140
+160
+160
+140
+140
+158
+175
+135
 
Ricardo Romero
-175
-190
-200
-180
-200
-190
-190
-175
-215
-
Seth Petruzelli
+155
+150
+160
+150
+160
+150
+150
+155
+175
-
 
Brendan Schaub
-320
-335
-325
-300
-275
-335
-335
-320
-260
-333
Chris Tuchscherer
+260
+265
+250
+220
+215
+265
+265
+260
+200
+220
 
Goran Reljic
-155
-155
-165
-155
-160
-155
-155
-155
-165
-167
Kendall Grove
+135
+125
+135
+125
+130
+125
+125
+135
+135
+120
 
Daniel Roberts
-200
-200
-200
-200
-205
-200
-200
-200
-200
-
Forrest Petz
+170
+160
+160
+160
+165
+160
+160
+170
+160
-
 
Karlos Vemola
-155
-165
-165
-165
-170
-165
-165
-155
-160
-189
Jon Madsen
+135
+135
+135
+135
+140
+135
+135
+135
+130
+135
 
Gerald Harris
-260
-250
-260
-280
-285
-250
-250
-260
-270
-
David Branch
+200
+200
+200
+210
+225
+200
+200
+200
+210
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